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<span class=mb-[2px]><a href=#/posts/202209-streaming-wars/index.md class="text-lg hover:text-primary-500" rel="noopener noreferrer" target=_blank title="Edit content"><span class="relative inline-block align-text-bottom icon"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 512 512"><path fill="currentcolor" d="M490.3 40.4c21.9 21.87 21.9 57.33.0 79.2l-30 30.1-98-97.98 30.1-30.06C414.3-.2135 449.7-.2135 471.6 21.66L490.3 40.4zM172.4 241.7 339.7 74.34l98 97.96L270.3 339.6C264.2 345.8 256.7 350.4 248.4 353.2l-88.8 29.6C150.1 385.6 141.5 383.4 135 376.1 128.6 370.5 126.4 361 129.2 352.4l29.6-88.8C161.6 255.3 166.2 247.8 172.4 241.7v0zM192 63.1c17.7.0 32 15.23 32 32 0 18.6-14.3 32-32 32H96c-17.67.0-32 15.2-32 32V416c0 17.7 14.33 32 32 32H352c17.7.0 32-14.3 32-32V319.1c0-16.8 14.3-32 32-32s32 15.2 32 32V416c0 53-43 96-96 96H96c-53.02.0-96-43-96-96V159.1c0-53 42.98-96 96-96h96z"/></svg></span></a></span></div></div></header><section class="flex flex-col max-w-full mt-0 prose dark:prose-invert lg:flex-row"><div class="order-first px-0 lg:order-last lg:max-w-xs ltr:lg:pl-8 rtl:lg:pr-8"><div class="toc ltr:pl-5 rtl:pr-5 print:hidden lg:sticky lg:top-10"><details open class="mt-0 overflow-hidden rounded-lg ltr:-ml-5 ltr:pl-5 rtl:-mr-5 rtl:pr-5"><summary class="block py-1 text-lg font-semibold cursor-pointer bg-neutral-100 text-neutral-800 ltr:-ml-5 ltr:pl-5 rtl:-mr-5 rtl:pr-5 dark:bg-neutral-700 dark:text-neutral-100 lg:hidden">Table of Contents</summary><div class="py-2 border-dotted border-neutral-300 ltr:-ml-5 ltr:border-l ltr:pl-5 rtl:-mr-5 rtl:border-r rtl:pr-5 dark:border-neutral-600"><nav id=TableOfContents><ul><li><a href=#how-did-we-get-here>How Did We Get Here?</a></li><li><a href=#massive-investment-in-content>Massive Investment in Content</a></li><li><a href=#quality-is-decreasing>Quality is Decreasing</a></li><li><a href=#more-money-in-more-money-out>More Money In… More Money Out</a></li><li><a href=#what-happens-next>What Happens Next?</a></li></ul></nav></div></details></div></div><div class="min-w-0 min-h-0 max-w-prose"><img style="box-shadow:10px 10px 30px 2px rgba(0,0,0,.6)" src=feature.jpg><p>Last July and for the first time ever, <a target=_blank href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2022/08/18/streaming-viewership-surpasses-cable-for-first-time-nielsen-says/?sh=76189d23767e">streaming viewership surpassed cable</a>. The streaming wars began around 2010 when Netflix introduced their first streaming-only plan with no DVD rentals, other players (cough, cough… Blockbuster) laughed at the time… little did they know. A decade after, there’s a multitude of streaming services available for mainstream entertainment and also for specific niches (e.g., <a target=_blank href=https://curiositystream.com>Curiosity Stream</a> - documentaries, <a target=_blank href=https://www.crunchyroll.com/>Crunchyroll</a> - anime, etc.).</p><h2 id=how-did-we-get-here class="relative group">How Did We Get Here? <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 ltr:-left-6 rtl:-right-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100"><a class="group-hover:text-primary-300 dark:group-hover:text-neutral-700" style=text-decoration-line:none!important href=#how-did-we-get-here aria-label=Anchor>#</a></span></h2><p>This question could turn into its series of posts, aka a very long and boring answer. The short version, Netflix hit gold when they launched their streaming-only subscription service that allowed customers to watch what they wanted when they wanted. This was a massive shift from the linear TV experience where you either had to wait in front of the TV to watch your favorite show, record and watch it later, or wait for a rerun (<em>fun fact: there was another option to set a reminder to watch your shows :D</em>). Not only did Netflix launch a way better product to <strong>consume</strong> content, but it also changed the way users <strong>discovered</strong> new series and movies by recommending new shows based on previous history. Users flocked to this service, which was significantly better than the alternatives and also cheaper than the average cable subscription at the time (i.e., <em>cutting the chord</em>).</p><img style="box-shadow:10px 10px 30px 2px rgba(0,0,0,.6)" src=players.png><p>After Netflix showed everyone how people really wanted to consume content, several players were interested in replicating that model themselves. Traditional content producers (e.g., HBO, Disney, etc.) saw a way to control their distribution channel and get a direct relationship with their customers. Other players, like Apple and Amazon, saw a good opportunity to expand their <em>service subscription</em> strategy by offering yet-another-service to their user-base. This year, most of these services <a target=_blank href=https://www.indiewire.com/2022/08/how-many-subscribers-netflix-hbo-max-disney-plus-1234744445/>reached hundreds of millions of paying users</a>, and the competition in this industry was never been this strong.</p><h2 id=massive-investment-in-content class="relative group">Massive Investment in Content <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 ltr:-left-6 rtl:-right-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100"><a class="group-hover:text-primary-300 dark:group-hover:text-neutral-700" style=text-decoration-line:none!important href=#massive-investment-in-content aria-label=Anchor>#</a></span></h2><div style=width:100%;height:0;padding-bottom:56%;position:relative><iframe src=https://giphy.com/embed/2u11zpzwyMTy8 width=100% height=100% style=position:absolute frameborder=0 class=giphy-embed allowfullscreen></iframe></div><p>One of the strong signals of this competition is the huge amounts of money being spent in content production. HBO just released <em><a target=_blank href=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_the_Dragon>House of the Dragon</a></em>, a prequel to their hit series <em><a target=_blank href=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones>Game of Thrones</a></em>. The first season had an estimated production cost of just <a target=_blank href=https://variety.com/2022/tv/news/house-of-the-dragon-budget-episode-cost-1235238285/>under $20 million per episode</a>, making the 10 episode run cost a full $200 million. In comparison, <em><a target=_blank href=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones>Game of Thrones</a></em> cost <a target=_blank href=https://variety.com/2022/tv/news/house-of-the-dragon-budget-episode-cost-1235238285/>around $100 million per season</a>, with the average cost per episode starting around $6 million in season 1 and going up to $15 million in the final season. This means HBO just invested roughly double what it did in the last season of <em><a target=_blank href=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones>Game of Thrones</a></em>.</p><p>Amazon, coincidentally, also decided to launch its <em>prequel</em> of a super-loved property in the fantasy drama space, <em><a target=_blank href=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lord_of_the_Rings>Lord of the Rings</a></em>. Investment in the new series, called <em><a target=_blank href=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lord_of_the_Rings:_The_Rings_of_Power>Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power</a></em>, is estimated to be around $1 billion. Amazon bought the franchise rights to <em><a target=_blank href=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lord_of_the_Rings>Lord of the Rings</a></em> for <a target=_blank href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-03/amazon-s-lord-of-the-rings-series-draws-25-million-on-debut>$250 million</a> and invested $465 million to produce the eight-episode first season of the show. In comparison, the entire trilogy of the <em><a target=_blank href=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lord_of_the_Rings>Lord of the Rings</a></em> was produced for roughly $300 million, $100 million for each movie.</p><p>Netflix has been increasing its costs with content production in <a target=_blank href=https://www.statista.com/statistics/964789/netflix-content-spend-worldwide/>the last years</a>, arriving at <a target=_blank href=https://deadline.com/2022/07/netflix-content-spending-plateau-17-billion-1235072812/>$17 billion this year</a>. Disney is set to spend even more than that, <a target=_blank href=https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/disney-content-spend-profit-streaming-1235145367/>$32 billion</a> (even after cuts). In a different space, big tech companies are also <a target=_blank href=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/24/technology/sports-streaming-rights.html>getting into <em>live sports</em></a>. All of this spending creates a super competitive environment across all services, which is not necessarily in the best interest of the viewers.</p><h2 id=quality-is-decreasing class="relative group">Quality is Decreasing <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 ltr:-left-6 rtl:-right-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100"><a class="group-hover:text-primary-300 dark:group-hover:text-neutral-700" style=text-decoration-line:none!important href=#quality-is-decreasing aria-label=Anchor>#</a></span></h2><div style=width:100%;height:0;padding-bottom:56%;position:relative><iframe src=https://giphy.com/embed/l0IycBz4icBmwxV6M width=100% height=100% style=position:absolute frameborder=0 class=giphy-embed allowfullscreen></iframe></div><p>One could argue that all the investment and all the money being thrown at content production will bring the golden age of entertainment. However, as most big investments, they are made to make someone money. In the entertainment industry, one of the ways to reduce risk is to invest in properties that have already proven their value in opposition to new Intellectual Property (IP).</p><p>The levels of “content pumping” that we are seeing nowadays lead to a massive decrease in quality, and worse, viewer fatigue. Especially since it is focused on a minimal set of genres (i.e., fantasy, hero movies, etc.) and franchises (i.e., Marvel Cinematic Universe, DC Cinematic Universe, Star Wars, Fast and the Furious, etc.)</p><h2 id=more-money-in-more-money-out class="relative group">More Money In… More Money Out <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 ltr:-left-6 rtl:-right-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100"><a class="group-hover:text-primary-300 dark:group-hover:text-neutral-700" style=text-decoration-line:none!important href=#more-money-in-more-money-out aria-label=Anchor>#</a></span></h2><p>When a company increases costs, usually the aim is to increase revenue and profit. Streaming services charge a fixed fee per month. Therefore, it doesn’t really matter how much or how little you loved the next big <em>fantasy drama</em> series from your favorite streaming provider – they will make the same amount of money from you.</p><p>Unless… streaming companies increase subscription prices and find new ways to monetize content. Aided by the excuse of inflation, most services have <a target=_blank href=https://fortune.com/2022/08/11/disney-plus-hulu-price-increase-hbo-max-paramount-peacock/>increased their prices</a> in the last year. Specifically, Disney+ subscription in the U.S. will rise from $7.99 to $10.99, while Hulu’s ad-free offering will jump from $12.99 per month to $14.99 per month. Netflix cheapest plan <a target=_blank href=https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/24/22993562/netflix-price-increase-us-plans-2022>increased</a> to $9.99, with the top one at $20.00. Additionally, executives from most of these big companies are also <a target=_blank href=https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbescommunicationscouncil/2022/06/17/why-streaming-platforms-are-accelerating-their-plans-for-an-advertising-model-now/>planning to roll out ads</a> for their services. Yes, even <a target=_blank href=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/19/business/media/netflix-amazon-disney-ads.html>Netflix that resisted for years</a>
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cannot keep ignoring that option when faced with competition.</p><p>Ultimately, this is a worse product for the user. Price increases could make the overall cost of streaming services too high for some users, which will force a choice of which services to keep. Furthermore, you will get ads again, or you can pay more if you would rather not see them.</p><h2 id=what-happens-next class="relative group">What Happens Next? <span class="absolute top-0 w-6 transition-opacity opacity-0 ltr:-left-6 rtl:-right-6 not-prose group-hover:opacity-100"><a class="group-hover:text-primary-300 dark:group-hover:text-neutral-700" style=text-decoration-line:none!important href=#what-happens-next aria-label=Anchor>#</a></span></h2><p>The high levels of competition have begun to generate frustration among users. Users are starting to get <em>fatigued</em> with the low-quality and constant recycling of content (I swear, I am uncertain whether I can handle yet another Marvel Movie or Star Wars trilogy). The increase in prices, especially in the current economic situation, will force users to choose which services to pay for, if any. And ultimately, competition for user’s attention has never been so high. Social networks like Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok take hours of engagement daily out of each user. Video game investment has never been so high, with so many options of games and consoles.</p><p>In my opinion, the streaming wars have already peaked, and we’ll see a change in the upcoming years before getting to a new equilibrium. I think that one out of three things will happen:</p><ul><li><strong>Horizontal Expansion</strong> - current streaming services would need to expand to provide additional services and bundle them together. This would increase the <em>value for money</em> and could be interesting to some users depending on what is being bundled. Netflix has begun doing this with <a target=_blank href=https://www.wired.com/story/how-to-play-netflix-games/>games</a>. Companies like Amazon and Apple came into streaming exactly for this reason, expanding into streaming even if it was not their core business.</li><li><strong>Aggregation</strong> - One service to rule them all… If one of the existing services, or a new player, can aggregate content from several players at a lower price point, this could create a captivating value proposition for customers on the lower end. This option seems highly unlikely, this was Netflix play years ago, and it didn’t work, potentially because they were greedy. Nevertheless, in the current scenario, it is highly unlikely that big players would share rights with another VS getting exclusivity on those.</li><li><strong>Merges and Acquisitions</strong> - Big fish eats smaller fish. This is bound to happen at some point, it’s just a matter of time and which company will acquire which company for what amount of money. It’s not clear if this will be good or bad for customers, depending on who starts playing together.</li></ul><p>My prediction is that ultimately, big tech companies like Amazon or Apple will begin acquiring other smaller players. These companies come into streaming as a horizontal expansion from their core businesses. Both are armed with an order of magnitude more revenues than their <em>content only</em> counterparts. As an example, in 2021 Disney’s revenue was $81.10 billion and Netflix’s was $24.9 billion. In comparison, Apple’s revenue in the same year was $378.32 billion and Amazon’s was $468.82 billion. 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<span class="flex flex-col"><span class="mt-[0.1rem] leading-6 group-hover:underline group-hover:decoration-primary-500">Bulk User Add for Docker Business and Teams</span>
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<span class="mt-[0.1rem] text-xs text-neutral-500 dark:text-neutral-400"><time datetime="2022-07-27 00:00:00 +0000 UTC">27 July 2022</time></span></span></a></span>
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